Mental Models and Predictions: Environmental Disasters

As I discussed in this post, people make predictions which can turn out to be reasonably accurate or complete failures.  Predictions are based on mental models, and bad predictions can indicate deeply flawed mental models, especially if many predictions prove to be wrong over a long time period.  To put it plainly, People (maybe very …

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Different Types of Warfare, and Questions

Not all wars are the same, and there are many ways to categorize the differences between them.  The term 'spectrum of conflict' can be found in older and recent doctrine documents as well as recent pronouncements by leaders. The notion of the spectrum implies that there are only differences in degree between noncombat deployments, low-, …

Doctor Weasel’s House of Horrors: Political Violence, Part 14

I was away from posting for a while.  A death in the family, plus other commitments, kept me from posting.  Also, I'm way behind on Instapundit articles and have barely commented there.  But I was keeping track.  I had a stash of links to episodes of violence committed with obvious political motivation.  So when I …

Doctor Weasels House of Horrors: Political Violence, Part 13

Since the last post on this topic there have been many instances of political violence: assault, violent threats, vandalism, and doxxing (which usually leads to threats of violence).  These are instances (as they always are) in which the victims and/or perpetrators are easily identifiable as being political actors aligned with the left or the right …

Space Force, Part 10: Commentary

Taylor Dinerman (a journalist very knowledgeable about space and military matters) makes a great point at National Review (let's not get sidetracked about NR, though...) about the need for the right leader at the helm of the new Space Corps. The first general in charge of the Space Corps (the Chief of Staff per the …

Mental Models and predictions: Net Neutrality

Remember when Net Neutrality ended in 2018 (after starting way, way back in 2014) and we were all going to die, or something?  As I explained in this post, people who make bad predictions often have bad mental models that will lead to more bad predictions.  Stop listening to them. Bernie Sanders said the entire …

Space Force, Part 9: Recent News and Commentary

    Bob Zubrin knows space.  He comments here that the US needs a robust, orbiting counter-space capability (that he calls a space fighter) to defend US satellites from enemy anti-satellite capabilities.  He is, of course, correct.  Also, from the article: Zubrin argues that if the Axis powers had merely had reconnaissance satellites during World …